Early this month, spring 2026 seemed to be yet another hot, droughty season across the West. Since then, March has been abysmally dry and scarily warm, thanks to a highly unusual heat dome parked over the West — a true anomaly for this time of the year.

Ouray’s average maximum high for March is 47.2 degrees. The city set a maximum high record of 76 on the first day of astronomical spring, March 20, and topped that with another, steeper record breaker on the 21st — 79 degrees, almost 32 degrees higher than normal.

Numerous maximum high records were broken across the West as well, including an all-time March high, which was broken twice. “Temperatures reached 43C (110F) in the area, located just outside Martinez Lake in the Yuma Desert on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).” (Brandon Drenon, “Hottest March temperature in US History recorded in Arizona,” BBC, March 20)

On Friday, that record was broken again; the same station recorded 112.

“A new report from the World Weather Attribution group, which analyzes the influence of climate change on extreme events, said Friday that this March heat wave ‘would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.’” (Denise Chow, “The West’s record-shattering heat wave isn’t over as heat dome shifts into the Plains,” NBC News, March 22.) The NWS predicts temperatures 25-45 degrees above average for this time of year for the desert Southwest into the Great Plains this week.

Another, larger question also confronts scientists: Is climate change accelerating? Climate researchers are debating this because of “another troubling development: The effects of climate change are intensifying in ways that have surprised even experts.” (David Gelles, “The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data: Several of the Earth’s systems are changing faster than predicted as global temperatures rise, scientists say,” The New York Times, March 19)

University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver explains: “This is what climate change looks like in real time: extremes pushing beyond the bounds we once thought possible. What used to be unprecedented events are now recurring features of a warming world.” (Seth Borenstein, “The Southwest smashing heat records in March ‘is what climate change looks like,’” Associated Press, PBS News, March 20)

Given this context, “The record-breaking heatwave scorching the US west this week would have been ‘virtually impossible’ if not for the climate crisis, a team of scientists has determined.” (Dharna Noor, “Heatwave scorching US west ‘virtually impossible’ without climate crisis, say scientists,” The Guardian, March 20)

The heat dome over the western U.S., “Fueled by an area of high pressure in the atmosphere,” is responsible for “shattered temperature records in 140 cities stretching from California to Missouri, according to the Weather Channel, while leaving California, Nevada and Arizona under extreme heat warnings on Thursday.”

As of Tuesday morning, Ouray’s March highs averaged 57.1 degrees, an astonishing 9.9 degrees above normal, 47.2. March lows averaged 30.8 degrees, 6.2 degrees above normal, 24.6.

In this month’s one and only storm so far, March 5-6, Ouray received 0.58 inches of precipitation, 23% of the March normal, 2.47. Snowfall was 18.4 inches, 67% of normal, 27.4. Water content was skimpy — a 32 to 1 ratio. Wet snow came first, then fine winter powder snow fell as temperatures plunged from a 56-degree high before the storm to a 14-degree low afterwards.

Ouray got a bit of a reprieve from the recent heat Sunday and Monday, with highs of 69 degrees both days. That’s still 22 degrees above the March normal. No wonder the local apricot trees are in bloom, more than three weeks early.

But a pattern change may be in the atmospheric works. Potentially good news for the drought-stricken, heat-crazed American West lurks in the latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion. “A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance).

In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026 (12 Mar 2026).” (Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP/NWS) El Niño could bring the reverse of the weather the West has experienced recently.

“El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate pattern that shapes weather patterns worldwide,” explains Gelles, “typically bringing wet and cool conditions with increased flooding to the southern United States, and warmer, drier winters to the northern United States and Canada.”

For this part of the Mountain West, the 3-4 week Climate Prediction Center outlook for April 4-17 predicts continued warm conditions but with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. Tuesday’s March 28-April 1 NWS forecast shows unusual heat but also above normal moisture. Ouray’s Tuesday forecast showed a chance of showers Friday through Monday, March 27-30.

“Winter is one of the last threads holding everything in place.”

— Porter Fox, author of The Last Winter

Karen Risch gardens, records weather for NOAA and C0CoRahs, writes and hikes in Ouray. Her Wunderground weather station ID is KCOOURAY3, transmitting weather from latitude N381’34”, longitude W107 40’21”, Elevation 7,736’. A purpleair.com air quality monitor RISCH operates at the same location.