The year 2023 may be remembered for weather and climate whiplash. In Ouray, the first six months were cold, gray and abnormally wet. As the 10th month closes, the city is on track to end the year in drought.

As of Tuesday the 24th, October remains remarkably dry, with just 0.72 inches (32%) of precipitation; the new normal is 2.20 inches.

Unfortunately, October is but the latest of four dry, hot months.

Just 3.27 inches of precipitation has fallen since the beginning of July. That’s 34% of a normal 9.6. The 202223 Water Year, which ended Sept. 30, posted only 21.05 inches (88%) of the new normal, 24.07.

Even more concerning than this ongoing drought is that these last four months have been trending seriously hotter than the new climate normals from 2006-2020. July days were 4.9 degrees above normal; nights 2.5 degrees above.

August days averaged 4.1 degrees above normal, nights 2.2 above. September’s days and nights were both 1.6 degrees above normal.

The real kicker here, though, is that the first 24 days of October have registered a whopping 6.4 degrees above normal, the

KAREN RISCH nights 4.7 degrees above.

My gardener’s heart, however, delights in the late October roses and coreopsis brightening my yard in this bountiful and beautiful autumn. The only frost we’ve had was a brief dip to 31 degrees the mornings of Oct. 14 and 15. The long-lasting autumn colors have been spectacular both in the high country and along the river bottoms, thanks to the vivid oranges and reds of scrub oak, aspen and cottonwoods this last month.

It’s beyond sobering, though, to realize that, worldwide, this year’s unprecedented climatic disasters have exacted a serious, sometimes terrible and merciless, toll on many places and their inhabitants.

This year’s weather flip from cold and wet to hot and dry on Colorado’s Western Slope is not so surprising in one way, given the transition from La Niña to El Niño oceanic and atmospheric conditions since spring. But it is surprising and very startling how much hotter Ouray, Colorado, the U.S., and the rest of the planet have become this summer and autumn of 2023.

For planet Earth, last month was the hottest September in 174 years of reliable worldwide record keeping. (“Topping the charts: September 2023 was Earth’s warmest September in 174-year record,” NOAA, Oct. 13, 2023) August also claimed the record for the warmest August in 174 years, while July was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.

In fact, “2023 is on track to become the hottest on record globally, with every month since April setting a record for the warmest ocean temperatures yet recorded.” (Andrew Freedman, “Prepare for a turbulent El Niño winter – with a major wild card,” Axios, Oct. 19, 2023.) Freedman writes that it is “The combination of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and record high global ocean temperatures” that “are likely to shape the upcoming winter season across the U.S., per an NOAA outlook released Thursday (Oct. 19, 2023).”

NOAA’s maps depict a wet winter (December, January, February) for Colorado, part of a broad swath of above normal moisture from central California to Florida. Temperatures look to be slightly below normal for most of the state.

Ouray’s near time forecast is cold and wet as well, with a good possibility for much needed rain and snow this weekend and into early November. But it looks like this more normal weather pattern may be brief since NOAA’s Week 3-4 Outlook for Nov. 4-17, published last Friday, Oct. 20, shows this area warm and dry again. Fall forecasts have been notoriously fickle, though, so don’t be surprised if they change again with this Friday’s updated outlook.

November typically brings days with highs averaging 46 degrees and nights, 24. Precipitation averages 1.72 inches, snow 18.7.

It’s technically a fall month, so really, anything can be expected, from warm, sunny days to bitter, well-below freezing nights.

And a note to all gardeners: Whether or not it does rain or snow this coming week, don’t put away those hoses until all your shrubs, flowers and trees — especially evergreens – are well soaked for winter. That last but very important gardening chore insures that their chances for survival in what might be a turbulent El Niño winter will be much greater.

Meanwhile, this week’s forecast calls for periods of rain, maybe some snow, and cooler, more normal weather: Highs in the 50s, not 70s; lows in the 30s, not 40s. It’s been a long time coming.

O suns and skies and clouds of June, And flowers of June together, Ye cannot rival for one hour October’s bright blue weather.

— Helen Hunt Jackson Karen Risch gardens, records weather for NOAA and CoCo-Rahs, writes and hikes in Ouray. Her Wunderground weather station ID is KCOOURAY3, transmitting weather from latitude N38 1’ 34”, longitude W107 40’21”, Elevation 7,736’. A purpleair. com air quality monitor RISCH operates at the same location.