A “9,000 mile “freight train of warm water” — a Kelvin wave — “hundreds of feet deep” in the Pacific Ocean has surged eastward toward Peru since April.
Scientists are monitoring its progress.
Named after the scientist who discovered it in 1879, Lord Kelvin, these waves originate east of Indonesia, in the West Pacific Warm Pool, a “global heat engine, fueling towering thunderstorms that affect global weather patterns.” (Ben Noll, “See how this 9,000-mile freight train of warm water may fuel a super El Niño,” The Washington Post, May 20, 2026) Water temperatures in the Warm Pool, Noll explains, “are among the highest in the world,” thanks to easterly trade winds which cause “lots of warm water to pile up.”
Noll quotes Michelle L’Heureux, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center physical scientist, who said that the impressive “Kelvin wave … is rivaling the one we saw in 1997.” She cautioned, though, that “despite this intense Kelvin wave, the eventual strength of El Niño remains uncertain.”
One of the first clues that an El Niño could form this year, writes Noll, came last December when a strong westerly wind burst occurred after normally easterly trade winds weakened in the West Pacific. In April, another clue appeared: “a record-breaking wind burst was triggered by triplet cyclones in the Pacific…” It “caused this undersea freight train of warmth to develop, greatly increasing the odds for a super El Niño this year.”
“In Peru,” Noll says, “local scientists are monitoring the arrival of this undersea warmth.” Peru-based forecaster Abraham Levy posted on X: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997.” The super El Niño of 1997-98 “caused estimated global losses of up to $96 billion at the time.”
Six “super El Niño events … have occurred based on records that extend back to 1850.” These include “the strongest El Niño on record from 1877 to 1878 that wiped out millions of people.”
Scientists know “the oceans are now much warmer than they were in the past, providing an extra boost to the El Niño forming now.” Noll reports that “Record- breaking amounts of warm water built across the upper 1,000 feet of the West Pacific in 2025, caused by the planet’s long-term warming trend as well as five La Niña events in six years.”
Ouray’s COOP weather data for the last three super El Niño events show fairly heavy snow totals: 198283 (183.6 inches); 1997-98 (144.2 inches); 2015-16 (195.5 inches). Interestingly, those aren’t Ouray’s maximum snowfalls. Only one is in the top 10 — the most recent super El Niño, 2015-16.
During the top five snow years, 200-plus inches fell: 2007-08, a strong La Niña year (263.4 inches); 1983-84, a weak La Niña (227.4 inches); 1974-75, a weak La Niña (223.6 inches); 2009-2010, a moderate El Niño (203.9 inches); and 2008-09, a weak La Niña, (202.2 inches).
If it appears that Ouray’s La Niña snow years seem to outweigh El Niño ones, that’s correct. Colorado winters benefit from two major jet streams: The cold northern one swoops down from the Pacific Northwest and the warm southern one sneaks in from the Pacific Southwest. When they intersect over southern Colorado, Ouray and its San Juan neighbors Silverton and Telluride are well-positioned for amazing snowfall. Ouray tends to benefit from storms coming from both directions.
Ouray’s historic COOP weather records include just one complete snow year from the 19th century — 1895-96 — when 175 inches fell September through May. That’s close to the current National Weather Service normal for Ouray: 173.4 inches as of 2006-2020.
With meteorological summer beginning Monday, it looks like Ouray may be easing out of the drought plaguing the West for five of the last six years. Tuesday morning, the 6-10 day forecast and the 8-14 day forecast (May 31-June 8) both show slightly warmer and wetter weather than normal for June.
Friday’s 3-4 week Climate Prediction Center forecast for June 6-19 shows normal temperatures and wetter than normal weather. Ouray’s June averages are: highs, 76.0 degrees; lows, 46.9 degrees; precipitation, 0.97 inches; and snow 0.1 inch.
NOAA’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for Ouray from May 21-Aug. 21 (released May 21) shows “Drought remains, but improves.”
What happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific.
— Daniel Swain
Climate scientist Karen Risch gardens, records weather for NOAA and CoCoRahs, writes and hikes in Ouray. Her Wunderground weather station ID is KCOOURAY3, transmitting weather from latitude N381’34”, longitude W107 40’21”, Elevation 7,736’. A purpleair.com air quality monitor RISCH operates at the same location.
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Please comment on keeping weather observations going
The NWS plans to improve the COOP network using modern commercial sensor technology, reducing COOP observers and cutting the number of COOP stations.
I have a good commercial Davis Weather Pro system. It’s fine for wind speeds but not so accurate at measuring precipitation, especially heavier rainfall. It is useless in winter since it freezes up. It is unable to measure snow, sleet, freezing rain or hail.
Two COOP observers in Ridgway and Ouray, Jennifer Cram and I, report daily weather observations to NWS/GJT, maintaining longtime observation traditions in remote mountain towns.
Please comment in favor of keeping the observations going with trained, capable volunteers as well as new technology by clicking here. Comments are due by June 8.
– Karen Risch
